Aronstein – Really Not Interested in the Fed’s Opinion

This is simply an excellent interview. Michael Aronstein, who makes the investment decisions for the excellent Marketfield Fund (was independent now owned by NY Life – also note, some of my clients have position in this fund) makes a great point.

And the point he makes in the first part of the interview is that his investing style is not affected by what the Fed will report in 90 minutes (from the time of this writing). He says he doesn’t even watch TV unless a good golf tournament is on. The lesson is simple: if you are an investor or a trader, you need to do your thing, your plan, your rules. And don’t let “noise” affect your decisions.

One funny part – “I think our analysis is better than the Fed’s”

Enjoy:

Gen X & Gen Y Need to Prepare to Be Caretakers

Younger people may not be aware of how difficult it will be to be the primary caretaker of a sick parent. I will guess that many of you in your 20s,30s, and 40s are floating around worrying about your own life. However, if you have parents, and many of you do:), you need to be thinking about what you would do if you were called to be the caretaker/decision-maker for a sick parent.

And strangely, I am observing more cases, anecdotally as it may be, of people in their 50s being diagnosed with early stage dementia-related diseases. And that is one thing you hope your parents never get because the process is long and emotionally painful.

A few resources to help you prepare just in case. These are articles are also good just to picture life issues from an older person’s perspective.

Here is a great article to just set your perspective on thinking about your parents. As many young people never stop to think that their parents were once young (and fun!), this article is a good eye-opener – Danielle Morrill: Solve the Problem Your Parents Have

Some of you make think your parents have money, but their home may be their largest (and only) significant asset! NY Times blog explains some of the dynamics and be prepared if you have “the talk” with your mom or dad and find out they’re not doing well financially. New York Times: Many Relying on Home Equity for Retirement

AARP has a cool short blogpost on what to do if you are an only child caretaker; the author points out that it may be easier since there would be no sibling squabbling over what to do with mom. Having to take the  full burden though would NOT be easy.

Planning for health care costs in retirement can be onerous – this is a good article on how to factor that in, and even though the article is geared to a healthy person in retirement, a disabled/ill person and their planning child can still benefit – IBD – Healthcare in retirement (or my article: Healthcare Costs – Like Paying for a Retirement Home)

If you are responsible for Downsizing your parent’s home, stuff, life etc, my company site has good resources as we focus on downsizing in retirement whether it’s a lifestyle change or for health reasons – Transition Planning WHA

If you are trying to talk your parents into getting long term care insurance, or if you are deciding whether to pay for it, then choosing a financially solid company makes sense due to the turmoil in the industry. Here’s an article on that. InvestmentNews: Health of Long Term Care Insurance Business Questionable – Moodys

If your mom or dad needs a nursing home, it makes sense to investigate the facility – its financial strength, its history of care (and care violations), is it non profit or for profit? Bloomberg outlined an article on for profit nursing homes and it was not flattering. And I’m not saying they’re all bad but Bloomberg quotes a federal study showing that they tend to over-bill. Bloomberg: For profit Nursing Homes Lead in Overcharging…; and here’s another from SmartMoney: 10 Things Assisted-Living Homes Won’t Tell You

If your mom or dad is not wealthy, it’s likely they explored or even planned to be purposely “poor” in order to qualify for Medicaid. Short primer – Medicaid is a poverty program so in order to qualify for the program to have the state pay for nursing homes costs (or as some seniors say, “so the state doesn’t take my money!!!” ahhh perpectives…) one must remove assets from one’s ownership – this is often accomplished through legal techniques such as trusts, life estates, gifting and annuitizing lump sums. Here is an AdvisorOne article: To Use Medicaid for LTC, Clients Give Away Wealth, Advisors Say - that could help you understand that process better. (my article: Are You Counting on Home Equity to Retire? could be helpful too).

And lastly, don’t be a schmuck – don’t be the financial vampire kid that drains their parents’ finances as outlined in my article (and the WSJ): WSJ: Don’t Let Grown Kids Ruin Your Retirement

There! I hope you now have a bit more perspective from your parents’ point of view. Drop any comments in the box below I’d enjoy hearing what you think, what you’re going through, and how this might or does affect you. Thanks!

Correlation to 1

On Monday I wrote an article about some ways that a fully (or partially) invested investor could hedge potential risks. And in naming these ideas, it didn’t exclude speculators from simply trading them.

And with both bonds and stocks sinking strongly today (any day without the 3pm, 345 and 355 pump is a strong day) there was no place to hide. Interestingly though, the hedges I mentioned have really popped since Monday.

I mentioned playing the Vix, TBT, gold, and using options on the QQQ or IWM. All of these have moved pretty good since Wednesday (well, gold related stuff moved a bit less than the others). The strong moves make me wary of a reversal, perhaps short term (probably after 3PM), which would swing these strongly the other way.

Nonetheless, the idea was to find things that had negative correlation with US stocks and bonds and I think we have a few ways here. How you use them is up to your discretion, and as I mentioned in the previous article, consider using these only if you are an experienced trader. The easier risk management plans are either:

the trader’s – using stop losses

or

the investor’s – buying businesses below intrinsic value

The other choice is just ride the waves, which is what most people do until the losses get TOO big then they sell at the bottom. But since this is not an advice site, and I certainly don’t get paid to share this article with you, the onus is on you to decide when to use what in your trading! Good luck out there and be careful.

And again, for disclosure, I or my clients own the following securities mentioned in the column: Vix related ETN’s, TBT, and gold-related stocks and funds

Maybe have a Little Bit of Everything

With markets looking lost this morning, it is time to reflect on proper risk management in your portfolio, and how you may want to proceed on that front.

Quick note- I am sharing some ideas here that should only be considered by people who actively manage their portfolio and have experience with options, hedging, and overall market conditions. If this is not you, please use this article for education purposes but don’t use these strategies until you are more experienced.

It’s quite obvious that the correct trading position in 2013 was to buy the Dow on December 31 with 100% of your money and let it ride. And there has been little reason to sell unless you keep super tight stops. However, many folks likely were a bit more diversified than that, regardless of whether they were investors or traders.

Investors likely had a diversified portfolio of funds or ETF’s that included an allocation to Europe, Asia, emerging markets, commodities and real estate. If that is you, you likely underperformed the Dow by a decent chunk as your global holdings and commodities would have dragged you down.

Traders, especially the large trend traders, would never have put more than 1-2% of their portfolio at risk in any one idea so they likely had not only their stock index systems going, but their currency, commodity and bond trades going. It’s likely many of them have a position in S&P futures, and likely many have shorted bonds. But I’m sure some of them got ground up in the currency markets and foreign indices as they bought and got stopped out a few times (especially in the currencies!).

So those investors and traders are already diversified -but for those who are concentrated and need to add some risk management, let’s explore how to diversify and mitigate some risk. Also we have to cover ideas for those that did sell out to cash significantly.

Low cost ways

The last thing you want to do in an up-trending market is to sell out everything on the first minor correction and go all bonds. You have to give this thing some room to run. Of course removing some risk as the risk-reward ratio weakens is not a terrible idea, but some people like to keep the trend going until it ends. Also, on the other hand, some people have sold out significantly, without a re-entry plan, and now fear they may miss large further gains. For those reasons, I’ll address getting exposure for both sides below.

Here are some ideas: [Read more...]