Surprising Unemployment Numbers? Simply Amusing

Apparently, according to Yahoo Finance, jobless claims jumped “unexpectedly” last week:


This is the recession that no one believes in. There has been so much anecdotal data on top of ACTUAL data (inflation, housing slump, personal income declines, etc) that the economy is hitting a weak patch here, or worse. Just in the real estate/housing sector, think of all the jobs/income lost: if fewer new and existing homes sell, that means less construction which equals construction layoffs. It also means fewer loan applications which equals layoffs and income declines among the ranks of mortgage lenders. And, it also means fewer real estate agents and lower commissions for other agents.

That is just ONE SECTOR. Inflation is killing other sectors as well, as rising raw materials costs cause cost increases (and price increases) in other industries such as the restaurant business. Who thought we’d see Starbucks CLOSING stores? The casual dining sector is weak across the board. Also interesting, are the models that economists use to figure unemployment. Apparently, people are being fooled by such measurements as the “birth/death” model (which I do not understand too well) which was showing employment INCREASES recently.For a better understanding of this model and how it can be inaccurate, go to the BLS explanation site HERE.

Higher unemployment numbers should not be a surprise to anyone. But as long as they keep reporting it as a surprise, then I will continue to be amused…

Chris Grande

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