Archive for Opinion
More People Seeking Careers in Asia
Posted by: | Comments7.27.2010
As I have mentioned many times previously on this blog, and every time I talk in front of students at my alma mater (Tufts) regarding jobs, the real opportunities, that come from macro growth, are in Asia and the developing world (Brazil, Eastern Europe, Turkey).
A New York Times article highlights this:
The trend is still small though picking up steam. However, as America increasingly becomes a bunch of mindless TV watchers waiting for their next government handout (sorry, when you extend unemployment benefits beyond 99 weeks, it is no longer unemployment – it’s WELFARE -99 weeks is also enough time to pick up an associate’s degree), overburdening our already bankrupt country, our remaining productive people will flee the coming crippling taxes to dynamic, growing, low tax havens such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Poland, and Brazil (yes “socialist” Brazil’s taxes in many ways are lower than ours).
We have a lot to be scared about – most people in other countries speak 2 languages or more – work harder in school, and generally desire to work to make their lives better. By the way, if your children spend the whole day playing video games, and you justify it with the excuse that their hand-eye coordination is improving, you may need to rethink. Their coordination may become even better when they can’t find a job.
Man Illegally Deported and Tortured Can Not Sue the Gov’t?
Posted by: | Comments6/20/2010
In the WTF department, we have a case of a Canadian citizen, passing through the US on his way home (connecting flight), arrested on suspicion of being a terrorist, sent to Syria where he was held and tortured, then returned after A YEAR after being found innocent.
Maher Arar sued the US government but the Supreme Court said he could not sue the government because Congress had not authorized it – WTF (should I start another category named this???) – can’t we say that about many wrongs?
I am quite scared of our government – everyday I read the paper and find some congressman, some senator, our faux civil rights president or the courts damaging our rights – these people are a disgrace to the founders of this country and anyone who sacrificed for its preservation.
Private Option Health Care Act – HR5444
Posted by: | Comments6.3.2010
For those of you that actually think the government can afford to give everyone unlimited health care so that Americans can lead horrible lifestyles and waste trillions in unnecessary health care, you can stop reading here.
For those of you that know we are pulling a Greece, that the added STRUCTURAL deficit added by the health care bill is unsustainable, and those who want to CONTROL their own care needs, Ron Paul introduced HR 5444 – “The Private Option Health Care Act”
It offers among other things:
100% tax credit for costs of health insurance
Enforcement of the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution allowing everyone to purchase insurance out of state
elimination of the 7.5% health cost threshold for deductions on schedule A (itemized deductions) – this would help MANY people – I know from my planning work and questions from countless people, especially retirees.
Read more here and if you like the idea, consider contacting your Rep!
Average SF Municipal Employee Earns 93K – BEFORE Benefits
Posted by: | Comments4.27.2010
What the heck am I doing trying to run a business? I mean, why work hard, risk failure, pay rent for an office, fees and licenses, when I can make 100k with the city?
The average city worker salary in San Francisco is $93,000 before benefits, according to Deputy City Controller Monique Zmuda. The data take into account everyone from park gardeners and street cleaners to attorneys and technology specialists.
Read more here:
Average SF Municipal Employee Earns 93K
This line of thinking – that people should stop working so hard and just get a government job – will only increase as government, with higher regulations, taxes, and expenses, motivates more people to quit trying and just get on the dole – either as a government employee or as they say in Italy, a pensionata – either through a “disability’ or some other means. We could also experience a skill flight – which we are already experiencing as fewer ambitious immigrants come to the US.
Interesting timing as a follow up to yesterday’s video eh?
11 Years Later and He Still Blames His Predecessors
Posted by: | Comments3.12.10
Interesting information reported recently by Reuters:
Venezuela murder-rate quadrupled under Chavez -NGO
Apparently, total murders in Venezuela have risen from roughly 4,500 when Hugo Chavez took power in 1999, to over 16,000 this past year according to an NGO (see story).
Chavez blamed his predecessors, and since I didn’t hear the speech he probably blamed the bogeyman too. This follows up my thoughts from yesterday – when people are promised things and grow to expect them, and then those things are either not delivered or taken away, many people turn violent (just like Greece). My thesis on this problem is that his population grows increasingly restless at the extremely high levels of inflation in the country and poor economic conditions since his policies of “giving back to the people” started 11 years ago.
If people understand they are responsible more for what happens to them, they will take responsibility. If government promises people too much, then doesn’t deliver, then we have a generation of dependent leaches.This is why governments around the world should take lessons from Greece. Many countries have generous social safety nets that are often abused and many of the leaders of these countries hope to God that the economy continues to grow because if problems persist, we absolutely will have more rioting youth, on a bigger scale (sad to see the younger generation so uncreative – “ahh let’s throw rocks through windows – great solution!).
As an aside, more government giveaways come at a cost – the more a government gives, the less freedom the citizenry has – Chavez for example, has closed down dozens of opposing radio stations, TV stations, and attacked opposing politicians and other leaders who questioned him. Once upon a time, Patrick Henry said “Give me liberty or give me death.” Now it seems a good chunk of Americans are saying, “give me (insert here: health insurance, paychecks for life, security from terrorists, etc) and I will be your servant.”
For more of my color on this read previous articles of mine such as:
How Much Can I Buy You For? (one of my classics on liberty vs dependence)
What Happens When You Don’t Act (summarizing the amazing loss of rights Venezuelans suffered under Chavez – they didn’t notice it because they were too busy celebrating their expected government handouts – and now that he has too much power, it may be too late for citizens to react)
Lesson From Greece: Government Handouts Are “Sticky” in a Downward Direction
Posted by: | Comments3.11.2010
John Maynard Keynes argued that the problem with a free market was that certain parts of the economic world, such as wages, did not correct down when the overall economy corrected. Therefore, it was better to stimulate the economy to keep the effects of a downturn minimal. Though I prefer a freer market, I do understand Keynes’ point.
If wages were the only thing that was “sticky” (as Keynes said) in the downward direction, perhaps we could plan for that; but unfortunately, it looks like handouts, requiring people to pay taxes, and paying people not to work are also sticky in a downward direction. Case in point: Greece.
As we see people rioting over having to pay their bills, tipping cars and smashing windows because they have to take a paycut, and general lack of civility among what I would call in some cases, “rioters,” we can begin to see what may happen all over the world if governments lose the ability to paper over problems. I have mentioned in past articles, especially when I commented on Hugo Chavez’s efforts to make his people adult dependents (such a sad thing to be a CAPABLE ADULT DEPENDENT), and I mentioned this at the end of my article on Tuesday of this week, that it is quite sad to see adults, especially adults in a country where they are free, be reduced to dependent leaches (or turn into complete losers) that riot whenever their government “benefits” are reduced.
As I said before, Greece is merely the contractions in the process. Eventually the real pains will come as there will be less capability to satiate an angry population when price increases take hold. As Marc Faber says, we will likely then go to war to take the population’s mind off of our problems and project them on someone else. Remember, Greece faces problems because they don’t have Helicopter Ben and his printing press. Imagine a time when we can not print money at will – it is quite a scary picture…
If You Had to Cut a Check, You Would Vote for Lower Taxes
Posted by: | Comments3.9.10
I am absolutely convinced that if you had to physically write a check for your taxes, like many self employed people do, you would vote for lower taxes.
This article on rising levels of sales taxes nationwide: Forbes Rising Sales Taxes
Think about it – it would be the biggest check you write out – if you had to write a quarterly check that is. Not only that, just like most people pay no attention to the cost of medical services (because all they see is the 5-15 dollar copay so there is no reason to bargain), most people don’t really feel their tax burden because it is painlessly (relatively) taken from their paycheck. Government is not stupid in one area (they’re pretty bad in quite a few) – they are smart about how to take your money. When they required that payroll taxes and income taxes be withheld from paychecks they knew that many would not be disciplined about paying taxes when times got tight (just as many don’t pay mortgages now that times are tight – mortgage providers lament the fact that they can not withhold their payments from your paycheck!). The IRS would be chasing millions for non-payment! No they would not do that – withholding works so much better – in fact let’s take extra, use it all year and then refund the extra to you at no interest and make you feel good about getting your own money back – that’s exactly how government would love you to feel about it – HAPPY TO GET YOUR OWN MONEY BACK.
So let’s figure out this hypothetical check you would cut. Let’s assume you make $15,000 per quarter ($60,000 per year). First off, you pay 7.65% in FICA tax (almost sounds like a swear doesn’t it? Just add a “U” on the end. But let’s also count the 7.65% that your employer pays for you – since it could theoretically go to you if not to the government. That makes 15.3% or $9,180. Next, let’s assume that after your exemptions and deductions (mortgage interest, property taxes, FICA deduction, 401k), your adjusted gross income is $45,000. Your federal income taxes on this according to the 2009 schedule would be $7,437.50. if you lived in Massachusetts like I do, your state income tax (flat 5.3%) would be $2,385. If you owned an average one family in Medford, MA, my home town, your property tax would be roughly $3,500 (depends on valuation of course – oh and this is another tax “painlessly” removed from your bank as a part of your mortgage payment).
Furthermore, in regards to the article linked about – supposedly 70% of Americans’ income is spent on consumption. Let’s take 70% of $60,000 = $42,000 – and since Americans just recently started to save money again, the idea that almost 100% of adjusted gross income would go to consumption shouldn’t surprise any of us. If the average sales tax nationwide, according to that article is 8.629%, let’s assume 8.629% of 80% of consumption is taxed (exclude cost of food which in some states, like MA is not taxed but in California where you get especially fleeced, is taxed), so 80% of $42,000 = $33,600 x sales tax of 8.629% = $2,899.34.
So let’s add up this tax burden:
$9,180 + $7,437.50 + $2,385 + $3,500 + $2,899.34 = = $25,401.84
Quarterly would be = $6,350.46
Now, what do you think the average person, earning $60,000/year would do if he had to WRITE that check every quarter? $6,350.46!!! he would vote out the gasbags trying to tell him he needs to bail out Government Sachs, or Government Motors, or the State of California (coming soon to a theater near you!). But since he is numbed like a good anesthetic, through piecemeal siphoning of his paycheck, or through his mortgage payment, or when he goes to the gas station, he never really pays attention.
The last point I will make – if we have been running deficits forever and this year the deficit is ENORMOUS, and we can’t even come close to balancing budgets, what do you think DC would do with more of your tax money? Do you REALLY think we would be balanced? If taking $25,000 from the man making $60,000/year isn’t enough, what is? $50,000??? Likely they will answer “just a little bit more.” They will nick you a thousand times until you have bled out. And soon you won’t be able to do anything about it. According to statistics, something like 40% of the people pay no tax – government has almost built the majority of government-dependent people that will ensure government will grow forever (people who depend on government will vote for more and more government – why not you’re paying! Don’t you do the same when you have hold of the company credit card?).
It is a shame that government would destroy the dignity of individuals by encouraging government dependency. We never hear talk of innovation, human growth, and entrepreneurial development from government people – and why not? How many true entrepreneurs serve in Congress? Are people inspired to make it happen or are people encouraged to depend on more government? The language I hear does not inspire people to “make it happen.” This is something that, being American, saddens me. bringing adult Americans to the point of dependency in such large numbers is something that our country should be most ashamed of considering our unlimited opportunities for education, for lifestyle, for careers/vocations. We have the most opportunity of any country in the world and the failure of many, which I think is a failure of ATTITUDE, not education or economic background (though those things can help greatly), should be what we most focus on fixing. A proper attitude can accomplish great things; and it’s about time that not only children in school but ALSO dispirited adults hear this message.
Housing Price Declines Are A RESULT Not Cause of Poor Fundamentals
Posted by: | Comments3.8.10
Rash-like skin reactions can be an early warning sign to stroke or heart attack – and treating the skin problems without knowing the underlying issue (the heart problem) would be a waste of time and likely not end in a favorable result. I know this well having lost my godmother under this scenario.
So when I see the President and Congress still trying to ‘resurrect’ the housing market thinking that this would be a catalyst for the economy, I get the feeling that we are treating the rash, not the pending stroke that many of these underwater homeowners fundamentally can’t afford to own ANY house, not just the one they are in.
Job losses, higher savings rates, and moral hazard are fundamentally shifting the credit market. Everyone who sells credit (banks, credit cards, etc) is rethinking how their customers will qualify for credit in the future. If more people foreclose and avoid paying debts, then it stands to reason that credit will be much more difficult to obtain (and is now so) in the future. The WSJ article linked above discusses a new program that would pay homeowners and lenders to short-sale their homes. Sounds neat doesn’t it? However, the reason this could be a disaster is that according to the article, there is over $1 trillion in equity loans and second mortgages. If banks had to actually REALIZE these losses on their balance sheets, we would potentially see many more underwater banks (they are actually currently underwater but they maintain their zombie status because they are delaying recognition of loan losses – ever notice how long it takes some banks to foreclose these days?).
In summary, economic weakness will continue to hit the housing market – simply a result, not a cause of retracting consumer free cash flow.
- In 2008-2009 the major credit card companies took back $1 trillion of available credit from consumers
- Unemployment currently is running at over 20% if you use real analysis (see www.shadowstats.com)
- Credit standards are tighter – A credit lending rates are for credit scores of 740 or above whereas in the past, lower scores got A rates – according to my sources
- Housing prices were historically too high – in a great article in 2006, Jeremy Grantham of GMO in Boston said that housing prices were riding at 6.3 times annual income on average where the long term average was closer to 4 – a trend he called “unsustainable.”
- Savings rates which were negative, are now running at about 4-5% according to research done by the major business newspapers.
Add all of these together – assuming consumption was about 70% of our economy, subtract 4% that is no longer being consumed by saved, subtract 3-4% for the loss of available credit card credit, subtract all of the home equity/2nd mortgage spending done on $50,000 kitchens and such which is now non existent, and add all of the other factors, and you can see why the economy is contracting, spending is down, jobs are lost and homes are foreclosing.
Instead of taking our lumps and telling people like it is so that we could get through this painful correction quickly (it would be quite painful) , policymakers have chosen to print and spend our way through this. As a result we may feel a nagging but not crippling pain for a much longer period of time – our own version of Japan so to say – of which we’ve already gone through 10 years of – we have already HAD OUR LOST DECADE. We are now on Lost Decade 2 – and like most sequels, this could be worse than the first.
Monday Thoughts – Interesting “On the Other Hand” Analysis of Toyota’s Problems
Posted by: | Comments3.1.10
Granted I don’t know much about auto engineering or the current investigations, but I figured there was more to the story than what we are seeing in regards to Toyota. Here is an interesting, concise counterpoint to the headlines that we are reading to think about on this issue:
The author analyzes the number of claims based on total miles driven by Toyotas (which is very high as they are a top selling brand). The incidents/miles ratio is rather low. Also, something I noticed before – the brake components are manufactured by CTS (Yahoo Finance – CTS) – an American company (based in Indiana). We haven’t heard much from them nor have they been dragged in front of the cameras.
Considering the track record of politicians, it would not surprise me if they were trying to help boost sales at Government Motors (GM) and it wouldn’t surprise me if GM were whispering in the ear of certain Congressmen. Treasury did hand GM $60 billion and interfered with the legal bankruptcy claims of many bond holders – and certainly it would not look good if that $60 billion truly did go down the drain when the government put money into that cadaver of a company.
Again, I don’t know much about engineering nor do I have details of the investigations so I present this article and information only for your further discussion – but it never hurts to hear a counter-argument.Read the article and see what you think…
79% Credit Card – May Be a Good Idea…
Posted by: | Comments2.13.2010
- If you’re terrible with credit and need to rebuild it.
Premier Bankcard is offering a credit card with not only a 79.9% APR, but also a $75 fee on a $300 limit card. Usury? Perhaps but is anyone forcing you to take it?
For many of the large number of people responding to this offer, their credit wouldn’t qualify them for any other card. And if Daddy Government (good ole “Daddy O”) institutes maximum rates on cards, then these people won’t get any credit. At least this is an opportunity to rebuild. This rate likely reflects how bad people are today at repaying.
There is a definite shift in our culture with many people feeling absolutely comfortable punting on debt obligations. This attitude certainly contributes to situations such as this. I am sure if you were lending your money, there are many people that you would not lend to at less that 79% either! (that’s the best way to cut through the politically correct BS – ask yourself when you see this rate if it were your money, would you lend it out at 8% to people with 500 credit scores?).
In one of my earliest articles on this site (to read click HERE), I wrote about this – and the faux indignation that gas bag politicians show at the credit card industry. I agree that their practices can be predatory at times (on people with good credit no less!) but let’s be honest in this debate. There are a lot of people out there with a poor level of personal responsibility and their credit score reflects it.
For a list of the articles I have written that have mentioned credit cards, click HERE.
The Taxpayer is Paying IndyMac Bank to Foreclose on You?
Posted by: | Comments2.12.10
The following I am still investigating and will run by some attorneys and real estate agents I know. For now, I will present this info and let you make your own judgment. Also I’d like to thank one of Bill Fleckenstein’s readers for passing on the following important information:
Potentially a disturbing bit of investigative work done by AZ real estate agent Robert Hertzog in his article “Is the FDIC Killing Short Sales” – according to him, and with a document from the FDIC to back it up, OneWest bank, which took over the portfolio of the failed IndyMac bank, has a deal with FDIC that states that the FDIC will cover 80%-95% of OneWest’s loan losses, making it more profitable for them to foreclose than to sell the house on a short sale – and to effectively TRANSFER MORE LOSSES FROM THE BANKS TO THE TAXPAYER. Apparently, increasing voter angst is accomplishing little and therefore, perhaps the heat needs to be turned up. Here is a tidbit in his words:
“Now, listen to the deal they got from the FDIC….
Basically, they purchased all current residential mortgages at 70% of par value (70% of the outstanding loan amounts). They purchased all current HELOCS at 58% of Par Value!!!
Next, in order to “sweeten the pot”, the FDIC stepped in and guaranteed the following: For any residential mortgages where OneWest experiences a loss, the FDIC will step in and cover anywhere from 80%-95% of the loss. The loss is calculated using the ORIGINAL LOAN BALANCE, not the amount that OneWest paid for the loan. Let’s use my clients situation as an example:
Loan Amount is $478,000, plus 6 months of missed payments, for a grand total of $485,200
OneWest pays $334,600 for the loan
We have an all cash offer of $241,000, net to OneWest.
So, let’s do the math, shall we? The net loss, according to the FDIC formula is the ORIGINAL LOAN AMOUNT minus the amount of the offer. In this case, $485,200-$241,000, or $244,200. Next, the FDIC, according to their Loss Share Agreement, writes a check to OneWest for 80% of the so-called “net loss”. So, in this case, OneWest gets a check from Uncle Sam for $195,360 (.80 X $244,200).
Add the $195,360 to the sales price of $241,000, and you get a grand total of $436,360. Remember, OneWest paid $334,600 for the loan. So, OneWest puts $101,760 in their pocket, thanks to the FDIC. Folks, that is over $100k of our hard-earned tax dollars!”
There is more to this including the intriguing group of investors behind OneWest. To read more, see Robert’s article here:
I am digesting the FDIC document linked in the article so I can not say for sure exactly how this works due to my limited legal background:). I will offer it here to you to investigate yourself. Either way, however you interpret this, since this is an FDIC program, this meets the implied approval of the President and likely many in Congress. If , therefore, you don’t like it, speak up – please.
Monday Thoughts – You’re Supposed to Go For It!
Posted by: | Comments1.25.10
I have a video for you to watch (below), but before we get to that, I want to share a thought with you. It’s 2010 – and when a new year rolls around, some people think of resolutions, but I know many people think of past failures. The feelings vary widely but often come down to “woulda, shoulda & coulda.”
I should’ve done….I would’ve done …. if I had…. or I could’ve done this if I got the chance to…
And now, in 2010, with a bad economy, many people are looking to Washington for help. Many people are hoping that someone ELSE could come in and save them. But I’m here to tell you that it’s time for YOU to go for it. It’s time for you to put aside the woulda-shoulda-couldas, and the hopin’ & prayin’ for a personal “bailout” and it’s time to go for it! You live in the most free country in the world; you have the ability to start a business, any business – many with very little investment. You have the freedom to work 2 jobs or even 3 to save money and do what you want (yes the freedom to work 2 or 3 jobs is an opportunity – many of us worked 2 jobs when one wouldn’t cut it – we could use our time if we yet didn’t have the skills to increase income).
There are many countries where you can’t start a business; there are many countries where you can’t decide what jobs you can apply for; there are many countries where the money in people’s pockets was devalued overnight by the government (North Korea, and Venezuela in the last month for example).
And even worse – many people don’t have enough food and water just to function and work. It amazes me that people in the US, with perfect health, eyesight, hearing, ability to read and write etc. make excuses. What would you rather make - a life for yourself or excuses? Which sounds better? And if at this point you are still feeling sorry for yourself, watch this video of Patrick Henry Hughes (great name) – and after you watch it, stop making excuses and GO FOR IT:
Health Epidemics Found Only in the US
Posted by: | Comments1.21.10
I saw this headline on Bloomberg today:
Heart Risk in One-Fifth of U.S. Teenagers Found by Lipid Tests
Bottom line – American kids are too fat. And this will have sweeping consequences not only for our nation’s overall health, but also the future (and current) cost of medically treating all of the symptoms (my favorite analogy is the guy who pops cholesterol-lowering medication as he heats eggs and bacon for breakfast – you all must know someone who does that!). That being said, one of the factors that significantly drives up our health care costs today is the percentage of ‘self-inflicted’ wounds incurred by Americans of all ages. What are these “self-inflicted” wounds?
1. heart disease
2. type 2 diabetes-related disorders and health problems
3. stroke
4. obesity-related health issues
I occasionally will discuss the work of Dr. John McDougall on this site. He is one of those experts that is often mocked by establishment because he speaks of what is obviously true – our western high-fat diet causes many of our help problems. We have health problems here in the US that would shock people in other parts of the world. Do you think people in Japan have as high a rate of type 2 diabetes as people in the US? many of our health issues are nearly non-existent in most countries.
A Current Issue
This is also an issue that few want to bring up in the health care debate because elected officials would never want to force people to be more responsible for their own health care – but it is the truth. If we changed our primarily western diet to a lower fat, more natural, grains/vegetables/legumes-based plan, then we would experience much lower rates of obesity, high cholesterol, and type 2 diabetes.At least health plans could offer discounts for people who take care of themselves. It seems that the only poor health choice that is politically ok to punish is smoking – eating chocolate bars and fried food 7 days a week is not to be discussed…
References:
Dr John McDougall discusses Diabetes – see site for more topics discussed such as obesity, high cholesterol, etc and a list of further references.
