More Internal Pain

I mentioned yesterday seeing breakouts crumble even though the overall market crept up. I also made the point that things “felt” like 2007 when the market crawled up but internally felt sick.

More evidence today of that. Breakouts were crushed, some stocks that merely met expectations got slapped (eg RVBD) and Peter Brandt who runs an excellent trading blog pointed out that the Baltic Dry Index (the shipping index) was making new lows- something that shouldn’t be happening in an expanding global economy. The market popped for ONE day after Bernanke spoke, which is much less reaction than the 6 month rally we got the last time he pledged big action. However, I will hypothesize that just his words won’t move markets much. I think people want to see OVERT Fed action. But I could be wrong and my judgement could be too quick.

Gold stocks followed on a bit day with gains that were “tame” compared to yesterday’s fireworks. Tech didn’t look so good and some companies like Riverbed were scourged after hours.

The dividend payers that I like to watch were flat today with a few exceptions. JNJ was up almost 1% and AT&T was down almost 3% – they had to give 3B dollars to T-Mobile due the failed takeover which I thought was dumb and they lost more spectrum – something Gretchen admit they need urgently.

The MLPs were flat. My readers know that I am looking to see if income portfolio objectives will come back. It seems that in 2011’s worries about the world, investors bought long bonds, MLPs and dividend-paying US large caps like Verizon and Altria. The income payers were flat today except long bonds which rose about 1.24% as the Fed pledged to keep rates low. Still with UncleBen pledging to print money, it wasnt reassuring for stocks to see 30 year treasuries rise.

I’ve tried a few breakouts which have mostly failed. My R2M picks have done better which is something else I discussed yesterday. I think I need to step back as this market is annoying me. I may look to add to dividend plays with solid floor on the chart to use as a stop loss. Otherwise I am going to clear my head and step back tomorrow. Sometimes I need to do that when I catch myself over-analyzing things.

Watch your risk management!

At the time of this writing, I or my clients own the following investments mentioned in this column: Gold, MO, GDX, AMLP, TIP

Note: this article is meant to be some helpful thoughts to share and not investment advice specific to you. Please consult your own advisor regarding investment and financial decisions. See our disclosures page